01 · Thesis · 3 essays
Priors, written down.
Three positions on where crypto and AI meet, starting with the one I published in April. Each one opens with the 30-second version and closes with what would make me wrong.
The Future of the Agentic Economy
A second economy is forming alongside the human one. It runs on agents, settles in stablecoins, and needs a verification layer nobody has built.
Agents will have an economy more diverse than the human one, made of specialists hiring specialists for cents at a time. Speed and cost are half the problem; the other half is proving the work was done. Without a verification layer that grades output and decides whether payment goes through, the whole thing runs on trust, and nothing runs on trust at fractions of a cent. Stablecoins and programmable rails are the only money that fits.
Read the essayVerification is the scarce resource
In agent-to-agent payments the money already moves. Nobody has solved how the paying agent knows the work was any good.
Agents can find each other (MCP, A2A) and pay each other (x402, USDC, smart wallets). The one layer with no production answer is judging whether the paid-for work was actually good. Payment rails earn on throughput, so none of them want to be the party that says "this doesn't settle." That leaves the verification seat open, and the party that decides whether to release payment holds the position of trust. I built a prototype to test this in April 2026, and the data I collected cut against my own model on volume and price per transaction. I still hold the thesis at medium conviction, and this essay says exactly what would move it.
Read the essayWhat mainstream adoption looks like next
Solana spent the last year winning the argument and losing the trade. Here is what I think happens after that.
As of 2026-09-03, SOL traded at $104 against a $293 all-time high, DeFi TVL had halved to $5.8B, and the market had stopped paying for throughput, even as every institutional milestone landed. I run four questions to keep this straight: is the tech getting better (yes: Alpenglow passed 2026-09-02, Firedancer is on mainnet), are institutions here (yes, see the tokenization essay), is anyone making money on-chain (apps yes, $257M in Q2 2026; holders less so), and does any of it accrue to SOL (unresolved). The next phase of adoption is not consumer apps. It is stablecoin settlement at payment networks and agentic payments, where Solana already carries roughly 65% of x402 volume. Whether that reprices the token is the open question, and I would rather say so than point at transaction counts.
Read the essayRules · for every essay
How I keep myself honest.
- 01
Every number carries a date
Volumes, shares and prices move. A figure without a date is a vibe, so each one here says when it was true.
- 02
The counter-evidence gets its own heading
A thesis that only cites its supporting evidence is a pitch. I record what cut against me next to what supported me.
- 03
State what would move me
Each essay closes with the specific observations that would change my mind, so the position can be scored later.